If you woke up, grabbed your coffee, and saw a sea of red on your trading dashboard, you're probably asking the same thing as everyone else: why are futures down today? It's especially jarring since the S&P 500 and the Dow were just flirting with fresh record highs yesterday. Markets don't just "take a break" for no reason. Usually, there’s a cocktail of nerves, data, and geopolitical noise shaking things up behind the scenes.
Today, Tuesday, January 13, 2026, the mood is definitely "cautious." You’ve got a mix of big bank earnings kicking off, fresh inflation data that just hit the wires, and some fairly wild headlines coming out of the White House and the Supreme Court. It’s not just one thing; it’s everything hitting the fan at once.
The December CPI Reading: Why the Market is Still Nervous
Everyone was bracing for the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. It’s basically the "final boss" of economic data for the month. The numbers just dropped, and honestly, they were a bit of a mixed bag. Headline inflation stayed steady at 2.7% year-over-year, which was exactly what economists expected. Core CPI, which ignores the price of your groceries and gas, came in at 2.6%.
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That core number is actually the lowest we’ve seen since 2021. You’d think that would be great news, right? Well, it’s complicated.
The problem is that even though inflation is cooling, it’s still parked above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target. Investors were desperately hoping for a "smoking gun" that would force the Fed to cut interest rates at their meeting later this month. Instead, what we got was "fine." And in a market priced for perfection, "fine" often feels like a failure. Right now, the CME FedWatch Tool shows the odds of a January rate cut are basically zilch—sitting near 5%. Markets hate waiting, and now they might have to wait until March or even June for some real relief on rates.
Big Banks and the Earnings Jitters
It’s officially earnings season, and the big banks are the first ones through the door. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) just reported, and it was a classic "good news, bad news" situation. Jamie Dimon’s crew actually beat profit expectations, but the revenue was a little lighter than the street wanted.
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The stock dropped about 4% in early trading.
When the biggest bank in the country stutters, it sends a chill through the whole sector. Delta Air Lines also took a massive hit today, tumbling 5% after their guidance for the rest of 2026 didn't quite live up to the hype. It’s a reminder that even if the economy is "resilient," as Dimon says, corporate growth might be hitting a ceiling. Investors are looking at these reports and wondering if the record-breaking run of 2025 is finally running out of steam.
Tariffs and the Supreme Court: The Wildcards
You can't talk about why are futures down today without mentioning the political drama. President Trump made some waves overnight, threatening a 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran. This comes as protests in Iran have the region on edge.
Crude oil immediately shot up to its highest level since November, crossing over $60 a barrel. Higher oil prices are basically a tax on everything else, which is why the transport and consumer sectors are feeling the heat this morning.
Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is hovering in the background. Tomorrow is an "opinions day," and everyone is watching to see how they rule on the administration’s reciprocal levies. Trump didn't mince words, saying the U.S. would be "screwed" if the court rules against him. That kind of uncertainty is basically kryptonite for stock futures.
The Powell Investigation
Then there's the weirdness with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Department of Justice is reportedly looking into testimony he gave last summer about a headquarters renovation project. It sounds like boring bureaucracy, but it’s actually a huge deal for market stability. Central banks from around the world actually issued a joint statement today supporting Powell. They’re worried about the Fed’s independence being compromised. If investors start to think the Fed is being bullied by the White House, they’ll demand a higher "risk premium" on Treasury bonds, which pushes yields up and stocks down.
Speaking of yields, the 10-year Treasury note is hovering near 4.17%. When you can get over 4% on a "safe" government bond, those expensive tech stocks don't look quite as attractive.
What This Means for Your Portfolio
So, what do you actually do with this? First, don't panic. Futures are a snapshot of sentiment, not a prophecy. We've seen plenty of days where futures were down 400 points at 7:00 AM only for the market to finish green by 4:00 PM.
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- Check your "Debasement" Hedges: Gold and Silver have been hitting records lately. Even with gold slipping slightly today to around $4,590, it's still near all-time highs. If you're worried about the dollar or the Fed investigation, these are the traditional hiding spots.
- Watch the $65.50 mark on Oil: If Brent crude breaks above that level, expect more pain for airlines and shipping companies.
- Small Caps vs. Large Caps: Interestingly, while the Dow and S&P 500 futures are struggling, small-cap stocks are actually holding up okay. Investors seem to be looking for a "broadening" of the market, moving away from the giant AI names and into smaller, undervalued companies.
Actionable Next Steps:
Keep a close eye on the Supreme Court tomorrow. If they rule against the administration on tariffs, we might see a quick relief rally as the threat of an immediate trade war recedes. Also, keep an eye on the $95,000 level for Bitcoin; it's been a bellwether for "risk-on" sentiment lately. If Bitcoin starts sliding further along with futures, it's a sign that the "debasement trade" might be taking a breather alongside the equity markets.